{"id":3055,"date":"2026-08-19T04:32:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:32:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yqcsfz.com\/?p=3055"},"modified":"2026-08-19T04:32:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:32:21","slug":"%e8%b0%81%e5%9c%a8%e6%94%af%e4%bb%98%e4%b9%90%e8%a7%82%e7%a8%8e%ef%bc%9f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e8%b4%a2%e5%af%8c%e8%bd%ac%e7%a7%bb%e7%9a%84%e5%be%ae%e8%a7%82%e7%9c%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/?p=3055","title":{"rendered":"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8 –"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u539f\u6587\u6807\u9898\uff1aThe Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aJonathan Becker<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\u7f16\u8bd1\uff1aSpecialistXBT\uff0cBlockBeats<\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u8be6\u7ec6\u5256\u6790\u4e86\u6563\u6237\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u300c\u51b7\u95e8\u7ed3\u679c\u300d\u548c\u300c\u80af\u5b9a\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u300d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u504f\u597d\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u300c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u300d\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u786c\u6838\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u6bcf\u4e00\u4f4d\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5747\u5e94\u8b66\u60d5\u7684\u907f\u5751\u6307\u5357\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e3a\u539f\u6587\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u62c9\u65af\u7ef4\u52a0\u65af\u5927\u9053\u4e0a\u7684\u8001\u864e\u673a\uff0c\u6bcf\u6295\u5165 1 \u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u7ea6\u8fd4\u8fd8 93 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002\u8fd9\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8d4c\u535a\u4e2d\u8d54\u7387\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u53d7 CFTC\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a Kalshi \u4e0a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5374\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u5386\u53f2\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4f4e\u81f3\u6bcf\u7f8e\u5143\u4ec5\u8fd4\u8fd8 43 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u300c\u51b7\u95e8\u300d\uff08longshot\uff09\u5408\u7ea6\u4e0a\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e86\u5de8\u989d\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u81ea\u613f\u63a5\u53d7\u6bd4\u8d4c\u573a\u8001\u864e\u673a\u4f4e\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u53ea\u4e3a\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\uff08Efficient Market Hypothesis\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u5e94\u5b8c\u7f8e\u805a\u5408\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6700\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u6ca1\u6709\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff1a\u4e00\u4efd\u5408\u7ea6\u8981\u4e48\u652f\u4ed8 1 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u4e0d\u652f\u4ed8\u30025 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5e94\u8be5\u6070\u597d\u610f\u5473\u7740 5% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u6db5\u76d6 182.6 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143 \u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 7210 \u4e07\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u8f83\u5c11\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u591a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u300c\u6536\u5272\u9519\u8bef\u300d\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\uff1a\u51b2\u52a8\u7684\u300c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u300d\uff08Takers\uff09\u4e3a\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u300cYES\u300d\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff0c\u800c\u300c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u300d\uff08Makers\uff09\u4ec5\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u5411\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5411\u6027\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5356\u51fa\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u4fbf\u6355\u83b7\u4e86\u300c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u300d\uff08Optimism Tax\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u548c\u5a31\u4e50\u7b49\u9ad8\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7b49\u4f4e\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5219\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b8c\u7f8e\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u8d21\u732e<\/h2>\n

\u672c\u6587\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u9879\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5b83\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86 Kalshi \u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u300c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\u504f\u8bef\u300d\uff08longshot bias\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u5176\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5b83\u6309\u5e02\u573a\u89d2\u8272\u5206\u89e3\u4e86\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u7531\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u8ba2\u5355\u6d41\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u3001\u4ece\u5403\u5355\u8005\u5230\u6302\u5355\u8005\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5b83\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u300cYES\/NO \u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u300d\uff0c\u5373\u5403\u5355\u8005\u5728\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff08\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u4e0a\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5730\u504f\u597d\u80af\u5b9a\u6027\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e Kalshi<\/h2>\n

\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u5408\u7ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5408\u7ea6\u4ee5 1 \u7f8e\u5143\u6216 0 \u7f8e\u5143\u7ed3\u7b97\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8303\u56f4\u4e3a 1 \u5230 99 \u7f8e\u5206\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4e0e\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u90fd\u6070\u597d\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n

Kalshi \u4e8e 2021 \u5e74\u63a8\u51fa\uff0c\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u9996\u4e2a\u53d7 CFTC \u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8be5\u5e73\u53f0\u6700\u521d\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u76f4\u5230 2024 \u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u4e00\u76f4\u5904\u4e8e\u5c0f\u4f17\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u6218\u80dc CFTC \u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u4e0a\u5e02\u653f\u6cbb\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u6743\u5229\u540e\uff0c2024 \u5e74\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u5468\u671f\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u7206\u53d1\u5f0f\u589e\u957f\u30022025 \u5e74\u5f15\u5165\u7684\u4f53\u80b2\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u5404\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u5206\u5e03\u6781\u4e0d\u5747\u8861\uff1a\u4f53\u80b2\u5360\u540d\u4e49\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 72%\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\uff0813%\uff09\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\uff085%\uff09<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a \u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u622a\u6b62\u4e8e 2025 \u5e74 11 \u6708 25 \u65e5 17:00 ET\uff1b2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684<\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba<\/h2>\n

\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5305\u542b 768 \u4e07\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a \u548c 7210 \u4e07\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u6267\u884c\u4ef7\u683c\uff081-99 \u7f8e\u5206\uff09\u3001\u5403\u5355\u65b9\uff08yes\/no\uff09\u3001\u5408\u7ea6\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u6233\u3002<\/p>\n

\u89d2\u8272\u5206\u914d\uff1a \u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u90fd\u8bc6\u522b\u4e86\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6d88\u8017\u8005\uff08\u5403\u5355\u8005\uff09\u3002\u6302\u5355\u8005\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u5982\u679c taker_side = yes \u4e14\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a 10 \u7f8e\u5206\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5403\u5355\u8005\u4ee5 10 \u7f8e\u5206\u4e70\u5165 YES\uff1b\u6302\u5355\u8005\u5219\u4ee5 90 \u7f8e\u5206\u4e70\u5165 NO\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6210\u672c\u57fa\u7840 (Cb)\uff1a \u4e3a\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83 YES \u548c NO \u5408\u7ea6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u6309\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u672c\u8fdb\u884c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e 5 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u6807\u51c6 YES \u4ea4\u6613\uff0cCb=5\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e 5 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684 NO \u4ea4\u6613\uff0cCb=5\u3002\u9664\u975e\u53e6\u6709\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u300c\u4ef7\u683c\u300d\u5747\u6307\u6b64\u6210\u672c\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9519\u4ef7 (\u03b4S) \u8861\u91cf\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u4ea4\u6613 S \u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u80dc\u7387\u4e0e\u9690\u542b\u6982\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u504f\u79bb\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u603b\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca (ri) \u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u56de\u62a5\uff08\u542b\u5e73\u53f0\u8d39\u7528\u524d\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d pi \u4e3a\u7f8e\u5206\u4ef7\u683c\uff0coi\u2208{0,1} \u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u6837\u672c<\/h2>\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5df2\u7ed3\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5df2\u4f5c\u5e9f\u3001\u5df2\u9000\u5e02\u6216\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u5f00\u653e\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5747\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4f4e\u4e8e 100 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u4e5f\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\u3002\u8be5\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5747\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5065\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u6700\u5c11\u7684\u533a\u95f4\uff0881-90 \u7f8e\u5206\uff09\u4e5f\u5305\u542b 580 \u4e07\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

Kalshi \u4e0a\u7684 Longshot Bias<\/h2>\n

Longshot Bias \u6700\u65e9\u7531 Griffith (1949) \u5728\u8d5b\u9a6c\u4e2d\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u540e\u7531 Thaler & Ziemba (1988) \u5728\u5bf9\u5f69\u6c60\u6295\u6ce8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6b63\u5f0f\u5316\u3002\u5b83\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e3a\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u4ed8\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e3a p \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u5927\u7ea6 p% \u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5728\u5b58\u5728 Longshot Bias \u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f4e\u4ef7\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u9690\u542b\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u9ad8\u4ef7\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e \u9690\u542b\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

Kalshi \u7684\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a 5 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u4ec5\u6709 4.18% \u7684\u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740 -16.36% \u7684\u9519\u4ef7\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c95 \u7f8e\u5206 \u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u80dc\u7387\u4e3a 95.83%\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u4e8e 20 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u8868\u73b0\u5747\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u8d54\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u9ad8\u4e8e 80 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u5219\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u8d54\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8\u6ce8\uff1a \u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u8bef\uff0c\u6821\u51c6\u66f2\u7ebf\u663e\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u6548\u548c\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5c3e\u90e8\uff08\u6781\u4f4e\u6216\u6781\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u7565\u6709\u4f8b\u5916\u3002\u9690\u542b\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6982\u7387\u7684\u7d27\u5bc6\u5bf9\u9f50\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u6821\u51c6\u826f\u597d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d1\u73b0\u673a\u5236<\/p>\n

Longshot Bias \u7684\u5b58\u5728\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u96f6\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7279\u6709\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u652f\u4ed8\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8c01\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u5269\u4f59\u4ef7\u503c\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6302\u5355\u8005\u4e0e\u5403\u5355\u8005\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb<\/h2>\n

\u6309\u89d2\u8272\u5206\u89e3\u56de\u62a5 \u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u6839\u636e\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e0e\u8ba2\u5355\u7c3f\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e24\u7c7b\u4eba\u7fa4\u3002\u6302\u5355\u8005\uff08Maker\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u653e\u7f6e\u505c\u7559\u5728\u8ba2\u5355\u7c3f\u4e0a\u7684\u9650\u4ef7\u5355\u6765\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u5403\u5355\u8005\uff08Taker\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u8ba2\u5355\u6210\u4ea4\u6765\u6d88\u8017\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u6309\u89d2\u8272\u5206\u89e3\u603b\u56de\u62a5\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6b67\u5728\u5c3e\u90e8\u6700\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e 1 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u4ec5\u4e3a 0.43%\uff08\u9690\u542b\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 1%\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94 -57% \u7684\u9519\u4ef7\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u6302\u5355\u8005\u80dc\u7387\u4e3a 1.57%\uff0c\u9519\u4ef7\u4e3a +57%\u3002\u5728 50 \u7f8e\u5206\u5904\uff0c\u9519\u4ef7\u88ab\u538b\u7f29\uff1b\u5403\u5355\u8005\u663e\u793a -2.65%\uff0c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u663e\u793a +2.66%\u3002\u5728 99 \u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u4e2d\u7684 80 \u4e2a\uff0c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u8d1f\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u7684 80 \u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u6b63\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u9519\u914d\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u4eba\u7fa4\uff1a\u5403\u5355\u8005\u627f\u62c5\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u83b7\u53d6\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4ef7\u5dee\u8865\u507f\u5417\uff1f<\/h3>\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u662f\uff1a\u6302\u5355\u8005\u8d5a\u53d6\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u5dee\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u8865\u507f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6b63\u56de\u62a5\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ef7\u5dee\u6355\u83b7\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u6709\u504f\u8bef\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136\u770b\u4f3c\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u4e24\u4e2a\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\u60c5\u51b5\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5229\u6da6\u7eaf\u7cb9\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ef7\u5dee\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6302\u5355\u8005\u4e70\u5165 YES \u8fd8\u662f NO \u5e94\u8be5\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u6309\u6301\u4ed3\u65b9\u5411\u5206\u89e3\u6302\u5355\u8005\u8868\u73b0\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u4e70\u5165 NO \u7684\u6302\u5355\u8005\u5728 59% \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc \u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u4e70\u5165 YES \u7684\u6302\u5355\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e70\u5165 YES \u7684\u6302\u5355\u8005\u52a0\u6743\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u4e3a +0.77%\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u5165 NO \u7684\u4e3a +1.25%\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u76f8\u5dee 0.47 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u867d\u7136\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\uff08Cohen\\’s d = 0.02-0.03\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u5177\u6709\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4ef7\u5dee\u6355\u83b7\u5e76\u975e\u5168\u90e8\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5404\u5e02\u573a\u7c7b\u522b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02<\/h3>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u504f\u8bef\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5438\u5f15\u8f83\u5c11\u6210\u719f\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u5e94\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u6570\u636e\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\uff1a\u91d1\u878d\u7c7b\u4ec5\u663e\u793a 0.17 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9 \u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff1b\u5e02\u573a\u6781\u5176\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u4e8b\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u663e\u793a\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u8d85\u8fc7 7 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u4f53\u80b2\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u51fa 2.23 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u9002\u5ea6\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230 61 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5403\u5355\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u8fd9\u9002\u5ea6\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e5f\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u91d1\u878d\u7c7b\u5982\u6b64\u6709\u6548\uff1f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7b5b\u9009\uff1b\u91d1\u878d\u95ee\u9898\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u662f\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u548c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u601d\u8003\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8d4c\u81ea\u5df1\u4e3b\u961f\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u672c\u8eab\u5f88\u67af\u71e5\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u6536\u76d8\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e 6000 \u70b9\u5417\uff1f\u300d\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fc7\u6ee4\u6389\u4e86\u60c5\u7eea\u5316\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

Taker \u548c Maker \u7684\u8fdb\u5316<\/h2>\n

\u6302\u5355\u8005\u4e0e\u5403\u5355\u8005\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5e76\u975e\u5e02\u573a\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u968f\u7740\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u5728 Kalshi \u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\uff1a\u5403\u5355\u8005\u83b7\u5f97\u6b63\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u4e8f\u635f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u53d1\u5e03\u5230 2023 \u5e74\uff0c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u56de\u62a5\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a +2.0%\uff0c\u800c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u4e3a -2.0%\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u719f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u8d62\u4e86\uff1b\u4e1a\u4f59\u7684\u6302\u5355\u8005\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u8f93\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u5f00\u59cb\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u5927\u9009\u540e\u5dee\u8ddd\u6025\u5267\u6269\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u4e0e\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u91cd\u5408\uff1aKalshi \u5728 2024 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u6218\u80dc CFTC \u83b7\u5f97\u653f\u6cbb\u5408\u7ea6\u8bb8\u53ef\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u540e\u7684 2024 \u5e74\u9009\u4e3e\u5468\u671f\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4ece 2024 \u5e74 Q3 \u7684 3000 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u6fc0\u589e\u81f3 Q4 \u7684 8.2 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u65b0\u8d44\u91d1\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u6210\u719f\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\uff0c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u662f\u4ece\u5403\u5355\u6d41\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u9009\u524d\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e3a -2.9 pp\uff08\u5403\u5355\u8005\u8d62\uff09\uff1b\u5927\u9009\u540e\uff0c\u7ffb\u8f6c\u4e3a +2.5 pp\uff08\u6302\u5355\u8005\u8d62\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u5408\u7ea6\uff081-20 \u7f8e\u5206\uff09\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u5360\u6bd4\u57fa\u672c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u524d\u4e3a 4.8%\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\u4e3a 4.6%\u3002\u4f46\u5206\u5e03\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5411\u4e2d\u95f4\u4ef7\u4f4d\u504f\u79fb\uff1b91-99 \u7f8e\u5206\u4ef7\u4f4d\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u4ece 2021-2023 \u5e74\u7684 40-50% \u4e0b\u964d\u5230 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3 20%\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u6863\u4ef7\u4f4d\uff0831-70 \u7f8e\u5206\uff09\u5219\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5403\u5355\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u504f\u6fc0\uff08\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u751a\u81f3\u7565\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u635f\u5931\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u6f14\u53d8\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u603b\u4f53\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8d22\u5bcc\u4ece\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5411\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u5e76\u975e\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u7279\u5f81\uff1b\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u6210\u719f\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\uff0c\u800c\u6210\u719f\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u9700\u8981\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u624d\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u5176\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8f93\u7ed9\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e86\u89e3\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684\u6fc0\u589e\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u4e13\u4e1a\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4ef7\u683c\u70b9\u4e0a\u4ece\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u4e2d\u83b7\u53d6\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

YES\/NO \u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027<\/h2>\n

\u6302\u5355\u8005-\u5403\u5355\u8005\u7684\u5206\u89e3\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u8c01\u5728\u5438\u6536\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4f46\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e3a\u4f55\u5403\u5355\u6d41\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u603b\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u6302\u5355\u8005\u62e5\u6709\u5353\u8d8a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5403\u5355\u8005\u5bf9\u80af\u5b9a\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u7b49\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027<\/h3>\n

\u6807\u51c6\u6548\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5408\u7ea6\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u504f\u5dee\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0c1 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u300c\u662f\u300d\u5408\u7ea6\u548c 1 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u300c\u5426\u300d\u5408\u7ea6\u5e94\u8be5\u53cd\u6620\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\u6570\u636e\u53cd\u9a73\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5728 1 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\uff0c\u300cYES\u300d\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u4e3a-41%\uff1bYES \u7684\u4e70\u5bb6\u9884\u671f\u635f\u5931\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u672c\u91d1\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u662f 1 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u300cNO\u300d\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u4e3a+23%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u770b\u4f3c\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u9ad8\u8fbe 64 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

NO \u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u5728 99 \u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u4e2d\uff0cNO \u5408\u7ea6\u5728 69 \u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e YES \u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u4e14\u4f18\u52bf\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6781\u7aef\u4ef7\u4f4d\u3002NO \u5408\u7ea6\u5728 1 \u7f8e\u5206\u5230 10 \u7f8e\u5206\u4ee5\u53ca 91 \u7f8e\u5206\u5230 99 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u91cf\u4e0a\u90fd\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u4f46\u300cYES\u300d\u4e70\u5bb6\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u52a0\u6743\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a -1.02%\uff0c\u800c\u300cNO\u300d\u4e70\u5bb6\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u52a0\u6743\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a +0.83%\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u76f8\u5dee 1.85 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u300cYES\u300d\u5b9a\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5403\u5355\u8005\u504f\u597d\u80af\u5b9a\u6027\u62bc\u6ce8<\/h3>\n

YES \u5408\u7ea6\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6709\u5173\u3002\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u6790\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u8ba2\u5355\u6d41\u6784\u6210\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5931\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u5728 1-10 \u7f8e\u5206\u533a\u95f4\uff08YES \u4ee3\u8868\u51b7\u95e8\u7ed3\u679c\uff09\uff0c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u5360 YES \u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 41-47%\uff1b\u6302\u5355\u8005\u4ec5\u5360 20-24%\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u5728\u6982\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u5f53\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u4e3a 99 \u7f8e\u5206\uff08\u610f\u5473\u7740 NO \u662f 1 \u7f8e\u5206\u7684\u51b7\u95e8\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6302\u5355\u8005\u79ef\u6781\u8d2d\u4e70 NO \u5408\u7ea6\uff08\u5360\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 43%\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u4ec5\u5360 23%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5047\u8bbe\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff0c\u51ed\u501f\u66f4\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u83b7\u5229\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u4f55\u65f6\u5e94\u8be5\u4e70\u5165 NO\u3002\u4f46\u8bc1\u636e\u5e76\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u6309\u6301\u4ed3\u65b9\u5411\u5206\u89e3\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u65f6\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u51e0\u4e4e\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5c3e\u90e8\uff081-10 \u7f8e\u5206\u548c 91-99 \u7f8e\u5206\uff09\u624d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c3e\u90e8\uff0c\u6548\u5e94\u91cf\u4e5f\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\uff08Cohen\\’s d = 0.02-0.03\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927\uff1a\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5e76\u975e\u901a\u8fc7\u9884\u5224\u65b9\u5411\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u5bf9\u53cc\u5411\u90fd\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u7684\u673a\u5236\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8ba8\u8bba<\/h2>\n

\u5bf9 Kalshi \u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a 7210 \u4e07\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5206\u6790\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u8d22\u5bcc\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u4ece\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u63a5\u53d7\u8005\u5411\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u521b\u9020\u8005\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\u7531\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\u7684\u8c03\u8282\uff0c\u4e14\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u5f15\u53d1\u9ad8\u5ea6\u60c5\u7eea\u6295\u5165\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u83b7\u5229\u8005\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u63d0\u53d6\u673a\u5236<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u96f6\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u83b7\u5229\u8005\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4f18\u52bf\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u9884\u6d4b\uff09\u8fd8\u662f\u4f18\u52bf\u7ed3\u6784\uff08\u505a\u5e02\uff09\u53d6\u80dc\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e\u5f3a\u70c8\u652f\u6301\u540e\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u6309\u6301\u4ed3\u65b9\u5411\u5206\u89e3\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6536\u76ca\u65f6\uff0c\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5dee\u8ddd\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\uff1a\u4e70\u5165\u300cYES\u300d\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u83b7\u5f97+0.77% \u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e70\u5165\u300cNO\u300d\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u83b7\u5f97+1.25% \u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff08Cohen\\’s d \u2248 0.02\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u663e\u8457\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8d62\u5bb6\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5957\u5229\u83b7\u5229\uff1a\u4e3a\u90a3\u4e9b\u504f\u597d\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u9ad8\u56de\u62a5\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u300c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u300d\u7fa4\u4f53\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u8c01\u5728\u652f\u4ed8\u201c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u201d\uff1f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u771f\u76f8<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u63d0\u53d6\u673a\u5236\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u300c\u4e50\u89c2\u7a0e\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u300cYES\u300d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u6bd4\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u7684\u300cNO\u300d\u4f4e 64 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4ecd\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5730\u4ee5\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u300cYES\u300d\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5360\u8be5\u4ef7\u683c\u533a\u95f4\u603b\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u65e0\u9700\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u9700\u5145\u5f53\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u5373\u53ef\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e Reichenbach \u548c Walther\uff082025\uff09\u5bf9 Polymarket \u4ee5\u53ca Whelan\uff082025\uff09\u5bf9 Betfair \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u8bef\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6d41\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316<\/h3>\n

2021-2023 \u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b58\u5728 Longshot Bias\uff0c\u5403\u5355\u8005\u4ecd\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u6b63\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u9006\u8f6c\u4e0e 2024 \u5e74 10 \u6708 Kalshi \u8d62\u5f97\u8bc9\u8bbc\u540e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7206\u53d1\u7cbe\u786e\u543b\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n

2024 \u5e74\u672b\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u662f \u5e02\u573a\u6df1\u5ea6 \u7684\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u5728\u5e73\u53f0\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u6210\u719f\u7b97\u6cd5\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u7684\u8fdb\u5165\u30022024 \u5e74\u5927\u9009\u540e\u7684\u6d77\u91cf\u4ea4\u6613\u6fc0\u52b1\u4e86\u4e13\u4e1a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u8005\u7684\u8fdb\u5165\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u6355\u83b7\u4ef7\u5dee\u5e76\u5229\u7528\u6709\u504f\u8bef\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02<\/h3>\n

\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u6302\u5355-\u5403\u5355\u5dee\u8ddd\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7b5b\u9009\u5982\u4f55\u5851\u9020\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u91d1\u878d (0.17 pp)\uff1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd1\u6709\u6548\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u300c\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u80fd\u5426\u6536\u4e8e 6000 \u70b9\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1f\u300d\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u548c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u601d\u8003\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u662f\u671f\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6216\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u5173\u6ce8\u8005\u3002\u77e5\u60c5\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u95e8\u69db\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u6ca1\u6709\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u9000\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u653f\u6cbb (1.02 pp)\uff1a\u867d\u7136\u6d89\u53ca\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u7387\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u535a\u5f69\u8005\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u5e76\u5df2\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u4e3e\u5468\u671f\u4e0d\u65ad\u8c03\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u8ddd\u5927\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u7c7b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fdc\u5c0f\u4e8e\u5a31\u4e50\u7c7b\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u653f\u6cbb\u53c2\u4e0e\u867d\u7136\u5e26\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u8272\u5f69\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u524a\u5f31\u6982\u7387\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u4f53\u80b2 (2.23 pp)\uff1a\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5360\u6bd4\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8be5\u7c7b\u522b 72% \u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u4efd\u989d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u8ddd\u4ecd\u7136\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927\u3002\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u73a9\u5bb6\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u636e\u53ef\u67e5\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e3b\u961f\u5fe0\u8bda\u5ea6\u3001\u8fd1\u56e0\u6548\u5e94\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u660e\u661f\u7403\u5458\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u4f9d\u604b\u3002\u7403\u8ff7\u6295\u6ce8\u81ea\u5df1\u652f\u6301\u7684\u7403\u961f\u8d62\u5f97\u51a0\u519b\u5e76\u975e\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u5e0c\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01 (2.69 pp)\uff1a\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u6df1\u53d7\u6563\u6237\u300c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u300d\u5fc3\u6001\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e0e meme \u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u548c NFT \u6295\u673a\u8005\u91cd\u5408\u3002\u8bf8\u5982\u300c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230 10 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u5417\uff1f\u300d\u4e4b\u7c7b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8e\u53d9\u4e8b\u800c\u975e\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u5a31\u4e50\u3001\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u4e8b (4.79\u20137.32 pp)\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u5b58\u5728\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5e76\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u81ea\u8eab\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u95e8\u69db\u6781\u4f4e\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u6ce8\u540d\u4eba\u516b\u5366\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u8d44\u683c\u9884\u6d4b\u9881\u5956\u5178\u793c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1b\u4efb\u4f55\u9605\u8bfb\u65b0\u95fb\u6807\u9898\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u4e86\u89e3\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7fa4\u4f53\u5c06\u719f\u6089\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5224\u65ad\u529b\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u77e5\u60c5\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u6280\u672f\u95e8\u69db\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u9690\u542b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5f15\u53d1\u60c5\u611f\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u95e8\u69db\u9ad8\u4e14\u6846\u67b6\u5ba2\u89c2\u51b7\u9759\u65f6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u7406\u60f3\u72b6\u6001\uff1b\u5f53\u95e8\u69db\u4f4e\u4e14\u6846\u67b6\u9f13\u52b1\u53d9\u4e8b\u65f6\uff0c\u4e50\u89c2\u6548\u5e94\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/h2>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7814\u7a76\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005 ID\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u4f9d\u8d56\u300c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\/\u5403\u5355\u8005\u300d\u5206\u7c7b\u6765\u4ee3\u8868\u300c\u6210\u719f\/\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u300d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u5728\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u662f\u6807\u51c6\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5730\u6355\u6349\u5230\u6210\u719f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5229\u7528\u65f6\u6548\u6027\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u53c9\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u76f4\u63a5\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4ea4\u6613\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u5dee\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u96be\u4ee5\u5c06\u4ef7\u5dee\u6355\u83b7\u4e0e\u5229\u7528\u504f\u8bef\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5b8c\u5168\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u4ec5\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u76d1\u7ba1\u73af\u5883\uff1b\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u6760\u6746\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u8d39\u7528\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u79bb\u5cb8\u4ea4\u6613\u573a\u6240\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ed3\u8bba<\/h2>\n

\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u805a\u5408\u6210\u5355\u4e00\u3001\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9 Kalshi \u7684\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4fe1\u53f7\u5e38\u88ab\u7531\u4eba\u7c7b\u5fc3\u7406\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5fae\u89c2\u7ed3\u6784\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u6240\u626d\u66f2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u88c2\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u4e3a\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u3001\u80af\u5b9a\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u4ed8\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5403\u5355\u8005\u9636\u5c42\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u8fc7\u88ab\u52a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6765\u63d0\u53d6\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7684\u6302\u5355\u8005\u9636\u5c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u8bdd\u9898\u67af\u71e5\u4e14\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\uff08\u5982\u91d1\u878d\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u8bdd\u9898\u5141\u8bb8\u5e0c\u671b\u4ecb\u5165\uff08\u5982\u4f53\u80b2\u3001\u5a31\u4e50\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4fbf\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5c06\u8d22\u5bcc\u4ece\u4e50\u89c2\u8005\u624b\u4e2d\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u7cbe\u7b97\u8005\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u539f\u6587\u6807\u9898\uff1aThe Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Predictio […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3056,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3055"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3055\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8158,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3055\/revisions\/8158"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zaixinjiang.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}